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Saving the planet, climate cataclysm and 
  the staging of a Malthusian moment




     ”The pulse of the earth”, installation in Copenhagen, Bella Center, COP15, 2009


                                 Guy Baeten
     University of Lund, Department of Human Geography, Sweden

          Conference on Environmental Conflict, Barcelona, 2-3 July 2010
thoughts

•   Crisis of vision for environmental change

•   Crumbling environmental visions
     • Sustainability as ’impoverished utopia’ (Garforth, 2006)
     • Climate change: technocratising intellectual monopoly over environmental future 
       slowly loosing its momentum


•   Vacuum filled by a coming together of disturbing environmental visions 
    (the apocalypse, Malthus and the climate)
     – Longing for the political: post‐political condition begs for politics
     – Apocalyptic imaginaries as main vehicle
     – Return of anti‐humanism and the staging of a Malthusian moment
     – The left incorporates what was once regarded reactionary
Apocalyptic aphrodisiac
                              The apocalypse is part of o
                                                             ur ideological baggage. It 
                                 is aphrodisiac, nightmare, a
                                                                   commodity like any 
                               other. You can call it a met
                                                              aphor for the collapse of 
                              capitalism, which as we all k
                                                               now has been imminent 
                             for more than a century. W
                                                            e come up against it in the 
                             most varied shapes and gui
                                                            ses: as warning finger and 
                                scientific forecast, collective
                                                                 fiction and sectarian 
                                rallying cry, as product of t
                                                               he leisure industry, as 
                             superstition, as vulgar myt
                                                            hology, as a riddle, a kick, 
                                a joke, a projection. It is eve
                                                                 r present, but never 
                            ’actual’: a second reality, a
                                                           n image that we construct 
                            for ourselves, an incessant p
                                                             roduction of our fantasy, 
Chesley Bonestell                            the catastrophe in mind

                             HM Enzensberger 1978

                                                  r and 
                     Our collective dreams of fea
                                                     vy, 
                        desire weigh at least as hea
                          probably heavier, than our 
                             theories and analyses
Making sense
– Fear of ’the end’ is socially constructed and then manipulated by those who seek 
  to benefit from it (Altheide, 2002)
– ’Nebulous anxiety’ (Bourke, 2005)
– ’Crisis of causality’ (Francois Ewald): 
     hurricane drought flood heat cold fire tsunami...
– ’Ecology of fear’ (Mike Davis): fear becomes the norm, exceptional risks become 
  normal risks
– General shift from a fearsome life towards a life with fearsome media (Grupp 2003)
– Dystopia itself, rather than what dystopia is a response to, is the distinct problem 
  of our times (Furedi 2007)
– Apocalypse as a way of life: mobilising power hollowed out
                                                                                                         as a global
                                                                          crisis has p lagued the world
                                                         ”Environmental                                     d it haunts
                                                                             e mid-twe   ntieth century an
                                                         awareness since th le first became aware of the
                                                                            eop                                      g,
                                                         us today. When p , for example through Silent Sprin
                                                                             isis                                    ed
                                                          enormity of the cr with alarm. Today, we are numb
                                                                           ded                            it’s bad but
                                                          1961, they respon            and people know
                                                                            essages,                        f the planet.
                                                          by apocalyptic m               e deterioration o
                                                                           to accept th             have become pa
                                                                                                                     rt
                                                           they have come
                                                                            e nv  ironmental crisis
                                                           Apocalypse and
                                                                              ryday life”
                                                           and parcel of eve
                                                                                   F Buell 2004
Historical classics of environmental  dystopia

•   First written account
       John, Book of Revelation
•   First English novelist account
        D Defoe, A Visitation of the Plague, 1665
•   First scientific account
        R Malthus, 1798
•   First socialist account
           F Engels, 1848
•   First literary accounts
           J Carey, The Intellectual and the Masses, 1992
• Today: rapid succession of climatic disaster 
  possibilities 

  – Nuclear winter
  – Global cooling
  – Global warming
From climate concern to  rumbling climate cataclysms


        • OPPOSITE OF SCIENCE
                 Post‐politics includes all in a consensual pluralist 
                  order and excludes radically those who posit 
                  themselves outside the consensus. 
                                                                          Those who disag
                                           ions                                              ree with the 
         ”reducing greenhouse gas emiss l 
                                     ateria
                                                                          existence of glo
                                                                                            bal warming 
            will contribute to the m                                     are ”intellectua
                                                                                          lly, politically, 
                                 from mankind’s 
        salvation of the planet                                             and morally ban
                                                                                               krupt”
                greed and indifference”

                                                                     Al Gore, 1995
John Houghton, IPCC, 1996


                                                                                                g 
“Global warming is to                                                        . The global warmin
                       o serious for the world
  longer to split into oppo                     any    “The science is clear
                            sing factions on it”                    debate is over”


Tony Blair, 2005                                       Arnold Schwarzenegger, 2006
The existing notion that environmental
                               problems are scientific conundrums that
                                can ultimately be resolved through the
                               application of expert knowledge ignores
                                the incontrovertible reality that these
                               issues are situated at the intersection of
                                inseparable social and technoscientific
                                                systems
                                                                               Maurie Cohen, 2007



•   POLITICS OF THE STATUS QUO
     – Forecloses the articulation of divergent, conflicting and alternative 
       trajectories of future environmental possibilities
     – Nature and its problems increasingly appropriated by a techno‐political elite
     – End of environmental choices, end of bottom‐up imagination of 
       environmental futures
     – One apocalyptic future, to be avoided, and then everything will be the way it 
       is. Does not promise change whatsoever

•   END OF SOCIAL ANALYSIS
     – United humankind versus Apocalypse
Today: dystopia reproduces deeply uneven 
     colonial, sexist, racist relations
– Production of knowledge is firmly (not exclusively) in the hands of a white, western, 
  male (US‐dominated) scientific community
– The saviours of the earth and humankind:
    • The politician, the producer, the prince, and Pete Postlethwaite
    • The soldier, the scientist
                                                                                       of
                                                                           evise a way
                                                               ss we can d
– The saved: the poor, women, third world, children
                                                           Unle                      the
                                                                        e CO2 from
– The return of the ’strong man’ (S Faludi)                  removing th re, we will lose
                                                                         e
                                                                        sph
                                                            Earth atmo                  rth.
                                                                            ecies on Ea he
                                                             half of all sp       an stop t
                                                            Then w  hether we c mankind,
                                                                           ction of
                                                             virtual extin          jury is still
                                                            well, wor ryingly, the
                                                                                   too
                                                                     out on that
Today: apocalyptic Malthusianism                                                             World faces 'perfect
                                                                                                   storm' of problems by
“…in a few decades the Earth could cease to be                                                             2030
the habitat of seven billion humans; it will save
itself as it dispatches all but a few of those who                John Beddington, 2009, government’s chief scientific advisor
              From James Loveloc
now live in what will become the barren regions.
We in Britain live on one of the safe havens
where life can continue in the heat age.”
“But what if at some time in the next few years                                There are far too many people
we realise, as we did in 1939, that democracy                               living in Britain already. Once our
                                                                              population passed the 20 million
had temporarily to be suspended and we had to                               level around 1850, it became too
accept a disciplined regime that saw the UK as a                           numerous. We have long passed the
legitimate but limited safe haven for civilisation.                          line of sustainability. As for the
Orderly survival requires an unusual degree of                                planet, its maximum sustainable
human understanding and leadership and may                                 population is no more than 3 billion,
require, as in war, the suspension of democratic                                        I would say.
government for the duration of the survival
emergency.
“I suspect that effective action to sustain this
island community will come from some form of
internal tribal coherence and rare leadership, not                         Aubrey Manning
from international or European good intentions.”

                                                                                        UK population must fall to
    James Lovelock, The Vanishing Face of Gaia, 2009
                                                                                                   30m
    (He nominates Sir Crispin Tickell as the new environmental 
    authoritarian leader)                                          Jonathon Porritt, chair Sustainable Development Commission
OPTIMUM POPULATION TRUST
        David Attenborough, Jane Goodall, Paul Ehrlich, Aubrey Manning, Jonathon Porritt, Crispin Tickell, ...


•   UK population policy: 30 million people
     – zero net migration
     – fewer economic migrants
     – encourage parents to stop at 2 children
     – reduce unplanned pregnancies among teenagers
•   UK fertility policy
     – new guidelines for the portrayal of sex by broadcasters, aimed at countering the glamorization of sex and 
         motherhood among vulnerable groups
     – teach people not to have sex yet
•   UK migration policies
     – reintroduction of UK border controls
     – tougher penalties for employing illegal labour
     – tougher penalties for assisting fraudulent asylum claims
     – no amnesty for illegal immigrants, deportation
     – universities should raise fees for overseas students



              Apocalyptic merger of deeply misanthropic, authoritarian,
              reactionary, conservative, post-democratic, xenophobic,
              elitist, approach to the environment
•   “Babies in Dakar, Senegal. The cost‐benefit analysis commissioned by the OPT claims that 
    family planning is the cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions.” (The Guardian, 3 Dec 09)
One apocalyptic future
                                ”Follow me a
                                               nd I will lead
                                from the aby                   you away 
                                              ss. We will s
                                everything t                ave 
                                             he way it is”



– Nature and its problems slowly monopolised by a techno‐political elite
– End of environmental democracy,
– End of environmental imaginaries by the people,
– Foreclosure of environmental futures,
– Appropriation of reactionary, Malthusian, discourses by the Left
– One natural apocalyptic future, to be avoided, and if so, everything will be the way it 
  is.
– What does environmental engagement mean beyond avoiding the apocalypse? 

                                                                              s it tends to throw 
                                                     m analytical thought, a
                             hor promises relief fro                             idden sign of an 
     The apocalyptic metap                              ing is conceived as a h
                                the same pot... Everyth                               tion damages 
      everything together in                          tend  ency to hasty generalisa
                             strophe in general. The
    imaginary totality: cata                               t that we still have left
                    that residu  al power of clear though

                                    Enzensberger 1978

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02.07.conference.guy baeten

  • 1. Saving the planet, climate cataclysm and  the staging of a Malthusian moment ”The pulse of the earth”, installation in Copenhagen, Bella Center, COP15, 2009 Guy Baeten University of Lund, Department of Human Geography, Sweden Conference on Environmental Conflict, Barcelona, 2-3 July 2010
  • 2. thoughts • Crisis of vision for environmental change • Crumbling environmental visions • Sustainability as ’impoverished utopia’ (Garforth, 2006) • Climate change: technocratising intellectual monopoly over environmental future  slowly loosing its momentum • Vacuum filled by a coming together of disturbing environmental visions  (the apocalypse, Malthus and the climate) – Longing for the political: post‐political condition begs for politics – Apocalyptic imaginaries as main vehicle – Return of anti‐humanism and the staging of a Malthusian moment – The left incorporates what was once regarded reactionary
  • 3. Apocalyptic aphrodisiac The apocalypse is part of o ur ideological baggage. It  is aphrodisiac, nightmare, a  commodity like any  other. You can call it a met aphor for the collapse of  capitalism, which as we all k now has been imminent  for more than a century. W e come up against it in the  most varied shapes and gui ses: as warning finger and  scientific forecast, collective  fiction and sectarian  rallying cry, as product of t he leisure industry, as  superstition, as vulgar myt hology, as a riddle, a kick,  a joke, a projection. It is eve r present, but never  ’actual’: a second reality, a n image that we construct  for ourselves, an incessant p roduction of our fantasy,  Chesley Bonestell  the catastrophe in mind HM Enzensberger 1978 r and  Our collective dreams of fea vy,  desire weigh at least as hea probably heavier, than our  theories and analyses
  • 4. Making sense – Fear of ’the end’ is socially constructed and then manipulated by those who seek  to benefit from it (Altheide, 2002) – ’Nebulous anxiety’ (Bourke, 2005) – ’Crisis of causality’ (Francois Ewald):  hurricane drought flood heat cold fire tsunami... – ’Ecology of fear’ (Mike Davis): fear becomes the norm, exceptional risks become  normal risks – General shift from a fearsome life towards a life with fearsome media (Grupp 2003) – Dystopia itself, rather than what dystopia is a response to, is the distinct problem  of our times (Furedi 2007) – Apocalypse as a way of life: mobilising power hollowed out as a global crisis has p lagued the world ”Environmental d it haunts e mid-twe ntieth century an awareness since th le first became aware of the eop g, us today. When p , for example through Silent Sprin isis ed enormity of the cr with alarm. Today, we are numb ded it’s bad but 1961, they respon and people know essages, f the planet. by apocalyptic m e deterioration o to accept th have become pa rt they have come e nv ironmental crisis Apocalypse and ryday life” and parcel of eve F Buell 2004
  • 5. Historical classics of environmental  dystopia • First written account John, Book of Revelation • First English novelist account D Defoe, A Visitation of the Plague, 1665 • First scientific account R Malthus, 1798 • First socialist account F Engels, 1848 • First literary accounts J Carey, The Intellectual and the Masses, 1992
  • 6. • Today: rapid succession of climatic disaster  possibilities  – Nuclear winter – Global cooling – Global warming
  • 7. From climate concern to  rumbling climate cataclysms • OPPOSITE OF SCIENCE  Post‐politics includes all in a consensual pluralist  order and excludes radically those who posit  themselves outside the consensus.  Those who disag ions  ree with the  ”reducing greenhouse gas emiss l  ateria existence of glo bal warming  will contribute to the m are ”intellectua lly, politically,   from mankind’s  salvation of the planet and morally ban krupt” greed and indifference” Al Gore, 1995 John Houghton, IPCC, 1996 g  “Global warming is to . The global warmin o serious for the world longer to split into oppo  any  “The science is clear sing factions on it” debate is over” Tony Blair, 2005 Arnold Schwarzenegger, 2006
  • 8. The existing notion that environmental problems are scientific conundrums that can ultimately be resolved through the application of expert knowledge ignores the incontrovertible reality that these issues are situated at the intersection of inseparable social and technoscientific systems Maurie Cohen, 2007 • POLITICS OF THE STATUS QUO – Forecloses the articulation of divergent, conflicting and alternative  trajectories of future environmental possibilities – Nature and its problems increasingly appropriated by a techno‐political elite – End of environmental choices, end of bottom‐up imagination of  environmental futures – One apocalyptic future, to be avoided, and then everything will be the way it  is. Does not promise change whatsoever • END OF SOCIAL ANALYSIS – United humankind versus Apocalypse
  • 9. Today: dystopia reproduces deeply uneven  colonial, sexist, racist relations – Production of knowledge is firmly (not exclusively) in the hands of a white, western,  male (US‐dominated) scientific community – The saviours of the earth and humankind: • The politician, the producer, the prince, and Pete Postlethwaite • The soldier, the scientist of evise a way ss we can d – The saved: the poor, women, third world, children Unle the e CO2 from – The return of the ’strong man’ (S Faludi) removing th re, we will lose e sph Earth atmo rth. ecies on Ea he half of all sp an stop t Then w hether we c mankind, ction of virtual extin jury is still well, wor ryingly, the too out on that
  • 10. Today: apocalyptic Malthusianism World faces 'perfect storm' of problems by “…in a few decades the Earth could cease to be 2030 the habitat of seven billion humans; it will save itself as it dispatches all but a few of those who John Beddington, 2009, government’s chief scientific advisor From James Loveloc now live in what will become the barren regions. We in Britain live on one of the safe havens where life can continue in the heat age.” “But what if at some time in the next few years There are far too many people we realise, as we did in 1939, that democracy living in Britain already. Once our population passed the 20 million had temporarily to be suspended and we had to level around 1850, it became too accept a disciplined regime that saw the UK as a numerous. We have long passed the legitimate but limited safe haven for civilisation. line of sustainability. As for the Orderly survival requires an unusual degree of planet, its maximum sustainable human understanding and leadership and may population is no more than 3 billion, require, as in war, the suspension of democratic I would say. government for the duration of the survival emergency. “I suspect that effective action to sustain this island community will come from some form of internal tribal coherence and rare leadership, not Aubrey Manning from international or European good intentions.” UK population must fall to James Lovelock, The Vanishing Face of Gaia, 2009 30m (He nominates Sir Crispin Tickell as the new environmental  authoritarian leader) Jonathon Porritt, chair Sustainable Development Commission
  • 11. OPTIMUM POPULATION TRUST David Attenborough, Jane Goodall, Paul Ehrlich, Aubrey Manning, Jonathon Porritt, Crispin Tickell, ... • UK population policy: 30 million people – zero net migration – fewer economic migrants – encourage parents to stop at 2 children – reduce unplanned pregnancies among teenagers • UK fertility policy – new guidelines for the portrayal of sex by broadcasters, aimed at countering the glamorization of sex and  motherhood among vulnerable groups – teach people not to have sex yet • UK migration policies – reintroduction of UK border controls – tougher penalties for employing illegal labour – tougher penalties for assisting fraudulent asylum claims – no amnesty for illegal immigrants, deportation – universities should raise fees for overseas students Apocalyptic merger of deeply misanthropic, authoritarian, reactionary, conservative, post-democratic, xenophobic, elitist, approach to the environment
  • 12. “Babies in Dakar, Senegal. The cost‐benefit analysis commissioned by the OPT claims that  family planning is the cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions.” (The Guardian, 3 Dec 09)
  • 13. One apocalyptic future ”Follow me a nd I will lead from the aby  you away  ss. We will s everything t ave  he way it is” – Nature and its problems slowly monopolised by a techno‐political elite – End of environmental democracy, – End of environmental imaginaries by the people, – Foreclosure of environmental futures, – Appropriation of reactionary, Malthusian, discourses by the Left – One natural apocalyptic future, to be avoided, and if so, everything will be the way it  is. – What does environmental engagement mean beyond avoiding the apocalypse?  s it tends to throw  m analytical thought, a hor promises relief fro idden sign of an  The apocalyptic metap ing is conceived as a h  the same pot... Everyth tion damages  everything together in  tend ency to hasty generalisa strophe in general. The imaginary totality: cata t that we still have left that residu al power of clear though Enzensberger 1978